As the Super Bowl hangovers commence, Monday morning NBA lines have the perfect opportunity to serve as the hair of the dog. With eight games on the docket, there are sure to be plenty of lines to bet, but only a few presented exploitable opportunities based on what they opened at.
As always, my top two early bets to target are listed below, accompanied by the respective book where you can find the odds listed.
Golden State Warriors (+1) at San Antonio Spurs (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
With the Spurs coming off back-to-back wins, it seems like the books are giving them a bit of recency bias, despite the recent absence of LaMarcus Aldridge. On the flip side, the Warriors have lost two of their last three games but have averaged just over 128 points in that span. With Stephen Curry playing at his MVP level, it’ll be incredibly hard for the Spurs to put up any type of fight against him, as they rank bottom-10 in the league against all five of his player traits (per FTN’s advanced DvP tool); primary ball handler (22nd), superstar (22nd), scorer (25th), dimer (26th), and crafty finisher (30th). If Curry performs at a fraction of the level he’s been playing lately, it’ll be tough sledding for the Spurs as favorites.
Oklahoma City Thunder (+12.5) at Los Angeles Lakers (-110, BetMGM)
While the Thunder have been ravaged by injuries and the league’s health/safety protocols of late, they’ve remained one of the more competitive teams in the NBA. Over the last three games, they’re 2-1 with their loss being a three-point defeat to the Timberwolves. Obviously, the Lakers are a taller task than any other team they’ve played lately, but they also were just forced into overtime against the Detroit Pistons. With that said, their +8.9-point differential combined with the Thunder’s -6.4-point differential makes this feel like a bit of a dramatic opening spread, especially when you bake in the fact that both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford should be active for this game.