UFC Vegas 20 Betting Prediction: Kuramagomedov vs. Oliveira

Checking out the prelims for the upcoming UFC event is a great place to find betting opportunities. One, for example, to look at is the welterweight matchup between Alex Oliveira and Ramazan Kuramagomedov.

Date: February 27, 4:00 PM

Venue: UFC Apex

Watch on: ESPN+

Alex Oliveira (22-9-1)

Oliveira is coming off of a first-round submission loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov back in October of 2020. That loss snapped his previous two-fight winning streak, and he will now look to get back on track.

His fighting resume shows that he has 12 wins by knockout, five by submission, and five by decision. He also has 10 first-round finishes with a combined effort of knockouts and submissions.

“Cowboy” has a striking accuracy at 50 percent and a grappling accuracy at 37 percent. He lands 2.87 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 2.18. This is a solid ratio but not much volume to make a huge difference.

Oliveira has a takedown defense at 63 percent and a significant strike defense at 48 percent. He also averages 2.41 takedowns and 0.61 submissions every 15 minutes.

Ramazan Kuramagomedov (8-0-0)

Kuramagomedov steps into this matchup on short notice and will put his undefeated eight-fight winning streak on the line. His last battle was a submission victory against Trevor Ollison back in September of 2020.

His fighting resume shows that he has one win by knockout, four by submission, and three by decision. He also has three first-round finishes, with one being a knockout and two by submission.

He will be making his UFC debut in this matchup. Looking at his record, he has notable wins spread out in leagues such as ACB, PFL, and CFFC.

His only UFC exposure so far is in July of 2019, when Kuramagomedov defeated Jordan Williams by a split decision. This was a middleweight showdown that was on the Dana White’s Contender Series.

Odds For This Event

The market is liking this matchup but is finding it difficult to claim the favorite. For the moneyline, Intertops has the odds currently set at:

Kuramagomedov: -115

Oliveira: -115

*odds are subject to changes

Free Betting Pick

The market is showing a lot of faith in the arrival of Kuramagomedov. Either that or they do not like Oliveira’s ability to stay consistent in his fights.

Both of these scenarios are currently valid since they both can be argued in a sense. Kuramagomedov has performed well against notable fighters that were in other leagues.

Oliveira’s significant strike ratio might not matter too much here since Kuramagomedov appears to be a long-distance fighter that enjoys the ground game. Oliveira has a weaker takedown defense, so this could be concerning looking ahead.

Overall, the maker should give some benefit of the doubt to Oliveira and his performances so far in his UFC. Look for him to come out ahead on a long battle to get back on track.

Spooky Express Free Pick: Oliveira wins via decision, at -115

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