What The Stats Say: Opta stat shows decline in Liverpool defence

Another win for relentless City

Manchester City 1.251/4 v West Ham 14.013/1; The Draw 7.413/2
Saturday 27 February, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

“Since losing 2-5 against Leicester in September, Man City have conceded just three goals in 15 home games in all competitions (W13 D2). The Citizens have won their last six Premier League home games without conceding, with Chelsea the last team to have a longer such run in the competition (9 between April – November 2010).”

With these statistics in mind, odds of 2.01/1 for Manchester City to win to nil seems like good value.

Brighton defending better

West Brom 4.3100/30 v Brighton 2.021/1; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 27 February, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Brighton’s first eight away league games this season saw 24 goals scored, at an average of three per game (F11 A13). The Seagulls’ last four on the road have seen just five goals scored, just over one per game (F3 A2).”

Brighton have been keeping it tight, so under 2.5 goals could land at 1.774/5.

Leeds will do double

Leeds 2.285/4 v Aston Villa 3.412/5; The Draw 3.814/5
Saturday 27 February, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Leeds are looking to complete their first league double over Aston Villa since the 1975-76 campaign, following their 3-0 win at Villa Park earlier this season.”

Villa look set to be without their talisman Jack Grealish, so cautiously back Leeds at 1.684/6 in the Draw No Bet market.

Wolves can scare Magpies

Newcastle 3.55/2 v Wolves 2.427/5; The Draw 3.39/4
Saturday 27 February, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Newcastle have lost eight of their last 10 Premier League games, winning the other two. Indeed, the Magpies have lost more league games in 2021 than any other Premier League side (8).”

With Wolves playing better of late, they look a good bet to win at generous odds of 2.427/5.

Low scoring London derby

Crystal Palace 3.711/4 v Fulham 2.3211/8; The Draw 3.39/4
Sunday 28 February, 12:00
Live on BBC One

“Crystal Palace won their last Premier League match against Brighton 2-1 – the Eagles had just three shots in the match while facing 25 in return, managed just two touches in the opposition box and had just 25.5% possession.”

It seems unlikely that Palace will score against a Fulham team that are defending well. Under 1.5 goals is 2.942/1.

Leicester can outgun Arsenal again

Leicester 2.6613/8 v Arsenal 2.962/1; The Draw 3.55/2
Sunday 28 February, 12:00
Live on BT Sport 1

“Leicester City have won four of their last six Premier League matches against Arsenal (D1 L1), one more than in their previous 36 top-flight league matches against the Gunners (D10 L23).”

Arsenal are in poor form in the Premier League and you can back Leicester in the Draw No Bet market and still get decent odds of 1.8810/11.

Burnley often draw blanks

Tottenham 1.574/7 v Burnley 7.26/1; The Draw 4.47/2
Sunday 28 February, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“No team has failed to score in more different Premier League games than Burnley this season (13).”

Spurs have not been defending well, but it could be worth taking a chance on them to win to nil at 2.6213/8.

Tuchel has tightened things up

Chelsea 2.3411/8 v Manchester United 3.412/5; The Draw 3.55/2
Sunday 28 February, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in each of their three Premier League home games under manager Thomas Tuchel, with the Blues last keeping four in a row in January 2018. The only manager to not concede a single goal in their first four home Premier League games in charge is Brendan Rodgers in October 2011.”

With Manchester United having drawn 0-0 in recent away games at Liverpool and Arsenal, backing under 2.5 goals looks sensible at 1.8910/11.

Blades sharp enough to score

Sheffield United 8.27/1 v Liverpool 1.422/5; The Draw 5.59/2
Sunday 28 February, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Liverpool have conceded 34 goals in their 25 Premier League games this season, one more than they did in the whole of their 2019-20 title winning season.”

It’s hard to have any faith in Liverpool’s makeshift defence these days and both teams to score can be backed at 1.9310/11.

Ings has a thing for Everton

Everton 2.245/4 v Southampton 3.55/2; The Draw 3.613/5
Monday 1 March, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Southampton striker Danny Ings has been directly involved in seven goals in his nine Premier League starts against Everton (5 goals, 2 assists).”

Everton’s home form is surprisingly poor and they seem likely to concede, so it could be worth backing Ings to add to his tally at 2.89/5.

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